TOKYO (Reuters) – Japan’s core consumer inflation likely accelerated in December, boosted by higher energy costs, while the Bank of Japan is seen raising rates next week, a Reuters poll showed on Friday.
The core consumer price index (CPI), which includes oil but excludes fresh food prices, rose to 3.0% in December from a year ago, according to a Reuters poll of 16 economists.
This would be the highest since August 2023, when the index stood at 3.1%.
Economists said the government scaling down subsidies for energy costs likely pushed up core inflation.
The internal affairs ministry will announce the CPI data at 8:30 a.m. on Jan. 24 (2330 GMT, Jan. 23).
The survey also showed the Bank of Japan will likely raise rates to 0.5% from 0.25% at its upcoming monetary policy meeting on Jan. 23-24.
BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Wednesday that the bank would debate whether to raise rates next week, signalling it will take borrowing costs higher barring any market shocks after U.S. President-elect Donald Trump takes office on Monday.
“Barring significant market turmoil after the U.S. presidential inauguration, a rate hike this month now looks almost like a done deal,” said economists at Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities in the survey.
The data next week also includes exports, which likely grew 2.3% in December from a year earlier, slower than a 3.8% gain in November.
Imports were expected to have increased 2.6%, resulting a deficit of 53 billion yen ($341 million) in December.
“Export growth is likely modest due to slow recovery of auto production in addition to the sluggish global production,” said Takumi Tsunoda, senior economist at Shinkin Central Bank Research Institute.
The finance ministry will announce the trade data at 8:50 a.m. on Jan. 23(2350 GMT, Jan. 22).
Machinery orders, a highly volatile but leading indicator of capital spending for the coming six to nine months, likely slipped 0.4% month-on-month in November after a 2.1% growth in October, according to the poll.
The data will be released at 8:50 a.m. on Jan. 20 (2350 GMT, Jan. 19).
($1 = 155.4100 yen)
(Reporting by Kaori Kaneko; Editing by Varun H K)
