(Reuters) – Makers of alcoholic beverages such as Johnnie Walker whisky and Corona beer could be caught in the crosshairs of a potential trade war after U.S. President Donald Trump imposed sweeping new tariffs on goods from Mexico, Canada and China.
Although Trump agreed to a 30-day pause on the tariffs on Canada and Mexico on Monday, the U.S. went ahead with the 10% levy on Chinese imports on Tuesday, prompting swift tit-for-tat tariffs from the country.
Canada and Mexico had both initially announced retaliatory tariffs had Trump gone ahead with 25% tariffs on their imports.
Here is a list of global beverage companies likely to see an impact:
DIAGEO
The British beverage company, known for brands such as Johnnie Walker and Smirnoff vodka, withdrew its medium-term organic sales growth target on Tuesday as it took steps to try and mitigate the impact of U.S. tariffs.
Diageo expects a gross impact of around $200 million on operating profit for the current financial year, mostly from tequila, if tariffs are implemented from March 1.
The company has about 46% exposure to imports from Mexico and Canada, according to a Jefferies note. It has end-to-end tequila production is in Mexico.
PERNOD RICARD SA
The French company, which produces well-known spirits such as Absolut Vodka and Jameson Irish Whiskey, has production sites in Canada, Mexico and China with about 6.3% of sales from Mexico and Canada imports, according to Jefferies.
Affected brands include Codigo 1530 tequila and Jefferson’s bourbon whiskey.
CAMPARI
The company, whose products include the popular Aperol aperitif, faces reasonable risk as tequila sold in the U.S. accounts for 7% of group sales and has been a key driver to its performance in the country, according to J.P. Morgan.
Campari has a production facility in Canada, and its facility in Mexico produces spirits brands like Gran Centenario and Espolon, according to its website.
ANHEUSER-BUSCH INBEV
Budweiser and Stella Artois owner AB InBev could see growth in its market share at the cost of its peers since a major portion of its portfolio is sourced from within the U.S., according to J.P. Morgan.
However, the brokerage noted that a significant percentage of its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) comes from Mexico, which could be impacted by tariffs, weakening demand for some of its products.
BROWN-FORMAN
The American spirits company, which produces Jack Daniel’s Tennessee Whiskey, faces tariffs on its tequila portfolio in Mexico, accounting for a mid-single digit percentage of U.S. sales, according to J.P. Morgan.
Brown-Froman is also subject to retaliatory tariffs from Canada and Mexico, which will weigh on its American whiskey portfolio, including its flagship brand Jack Daniel’s.
Canada and Mexico make up 1% and 7% of its 2024 total sales, according to the company’s 2024 annual report.
CONSTELLATION BRANDS
The Corona and Modelo Especial beer maker has a total production capacity of about 48 million hectoliters in Mexico, which is anticipated to rise to about 65 million hectoliters by fiscal 2028, according to the latest annual report for the year ending February 2024
J.P. Morgan noted that about 85% of Constellation Brands’ consolidated sales are derived from Mexican beer and could potentially see a mid-20’s percentage impact to earnings per share if no pricing or cost savings initiatives is taken.
MOLSON COORS BEVERAGE
Miller Lite maker Molson Coors has exposure to tariffs through Molson Canadian, although J.P. Morgan believes the impact would be “de minimis.”
The brokerage added that Canada’s retaliatory tariff impact on American beer would be limited too as the company produces Coors Light and Miller Lite locally in Canadian breweries.
HEINEKEN
Dutch brewer Heineken could see some modest impact as Mexican imports for the company are around low-single digit percentage of the group’s sales, according to Jefferies.
BECLE
Jose Cuervo owner Becle, a Mexican-based company and one of the world’s biggest tequila maker, along with Diageo, dominates the U.S. market for the agave-based drinks and rely heavily on tequila sales in the U.S. for growth.
Becle’s U.S. shipments of eight tequila or mezcal brands had a sales value of almost $1.6 billion, according to a Reuters analysis.
(Reporting by Ananya Mariam Rajesh and Aamir Sohail in Bengaluru; Editing by Tasim Zahid and Varun H K)
