By Joe Cash and Laurie Chen
BEIJING (Reuters) – China came out in support of U.S. President Donald Trump’s bid to strike a deal with Russia to end the war in Ukraine, at a G20 meeting in South Africa on Thursday, while U.S. allies rallied around Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy.
Less than a month into his presidency, Trump has upended U.S. policy on the war, scrapping a campaign to isolate Moscow with a phone call to Russian President Vladimir Putin and talks between senior U.S. and Russian officials that have sidelined Ukraine.
Trump on Wednesday then denounced Zelenskiy as a “dictator,” prompting statements of support for the Ukrainian president from G20 members such as Australia, Germany and the United Kingdom.
“China supports all efforts conducive to peace (in Ukraine), including the recent consensus reached between the United States and Russia,” Wang Yi told other G20 foreign ministers gathered in Johannesburg, according to a statement from his ministry.
“China is willing to continue playing a constructive role in the political resolution of the crisis,” he added.
Wang did not reiterate the point he made at the Munich Security Conference last Friday that all stakeholders in the Russia-Ukraine conflict should participate in any peace talks.
“China is generally happy to see the easing of relations between the United States and Russia and the shift of the Ukrainian crisis to a political solution, but will pay close attention to the direction of negotiations and the direction of easing of U.S.-Russian relations,” said Cui Hongjian, head of European Union studies at Beijing Foreign Studies University.
“If China participates in mediation, it can reduce the risk of the United States using the easing of relations with Russia to harm China’s interests.”
He added that Wang Yi’s previous remark that all stakeholders should be included in talks covers not only Ukraine and Europe, but also China and Global South countries.
Global South countries represent developing, emerging or lower-income nations, mostly in the southern hemisphere.
However, other analysts were sceptical of China’s substantive involvement beyond rhetorical statements at this stage, given Beijing’s aversion to taking geopolitical risks.
“China is happy not to be called on the spot to deliver because they don’t know what Trump will demand,” said Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center.
“Trump wanted China’s involvement initially but now he’s spoken to Putin. He is under the impression that he doesn’t need China to get a deal with Putin and Putin will give him a perfect and better deal going forward.”
Wang said China-Russia relations are “moving towards a higher level and broader dimension” during a meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on the sidelines of the G20. Both men will meet in Moscow soon for their next talks, Lavrov said earlier on Thursday.
Other analysts believe that China wants to keep a foot in the door of negotiations because it wants to take part in Ukraine’s reconstruction.
“China might turn its attention to discussing a Chinese role in eventual reconstruction and peacekeeping – something that would give Beijing a significantly more vested interest in European security architecture,” said Ruby Osman, a China expert at the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change.
The Trump administration said on Tuesday it had agreed to hold more talks with Russia on ending the nearly three-year long conflict after a 4-1/2-hour long meeting in Saudi Arabia.
Russia said the talks had been useful, but hardened its demands, notably insisting it would not tolerate the NATO alliance granting membership to Ukraine.
(Reporting by Joe Cash and Laurie Chen; Editing by Sonali Paul and Michael Perry)
