HANOI (Reuters) – U.S. President Donald Trump has announced plans for tariffs that could virtually hit all Vietnam’s goods exports to its top market, worth last year more than $142 billion, according to UN data, about 30% of Vietnam’s gross domestic product.
Vietnam benefited from the trade war Trump launched against China in his first term, but Vietnamese officials and foreign companies are uncertain about the outcome of the White House’s increasingly protectionist stance. Vietnam has one of the largest surpluses with the U.S. and meets several criteria for potential reciprocal tariffs.
Below are some of the measures Vietnamese officials have flagged, are considering or that may help dodge tariffs:
DUTIES, NON-TRADE BARRIERS
Vietnam’s average levies are higher than U.S. duties, and the country also charges value added tax on goods. Some economists, however, have calculated that effective bilateral tariff rates are lower in Vietnam.
It is not clear which rates the Trump administration is considering to determine possible reciprocal tariffs, but average duties have so far been used as the benchmark by U.S. officials.
Vietnam has signalled an openness to find compromises but lowering duties on U.S. goods may force the country to reduce them also on other trade partners.
The Office of the United States Trade Representative in its latest report in 2024 produced a long list of non-trade hurdles applied by Vietnam, including import bans, complex registration requirements, technical and sanitary barriers.
ENERGY IMPORTS
Vietnamese officials have repeatedly discussed with U.S counterparts possible purchases of U.S. liquefied natural gas for Vietnam’s fledgling LNG industry, but no concrete steps have been taken yet, officials have said.
The country is also planning to re-launch its nuclear power programme and is looking for suppliers of nuclear energy technology.
AGRICULTURE GOODS
Vietnam’s trade minister has said it is open to import more U.S. farm products. A rise in agriculture imports is unlikely to significantly correct trade imbalances as Vietnam’s total imports of farm products from the U.S. last year totalled $3.4 billion.
TRANSHIPMENT, STEEL
Vietnam has long been suspected of being a transhipment hub for Chinese goods to the U.S. given the huge volumes of intermediate goods it imports from China. For some products such as solar panels it has already been sanctioned.
Last week, Vietnam decided to impose temporary anti-dumping duties on Chinese steel products, as it faces risks of 25% tariffs on its steel exports to the U.S. on top of anti-dumping duties Washington already levies on Vietnamese steel.
DEFENCE, STARLINK
Hanoi has been in talks with U.S. defence firms for the possible purchase of security equipment, with negotiations at an advanced stage for Lockheed Martin C-130 Hercules military transport planes, according to officials with knowledge of the matter.
Earlier in February, the Vietnamese parliament approved the legal framework for a pilot scheme that could allow Elon Musk’s Starlink to provide satellite internet and security services in Vietnam.
PLANES
Vietnamese budget carrier VietJet agreed to buy 200 Boeing 737 MAX jets in a multi-billion dollar deal first signed in 2016 and revised afterwards.
No plane has yet been delivered although the company had said it expected to receive the first jets last year. It has also shown interest in expanding the deal without detailing how.
DEPORTATIONS
Vietnam is issuing travel documents for Vietnamese nationals detained in the U.S. for their repatriation, a U.S.-based lawyer said, noting Hanoi had accepted to handle more requests and faster after U.S. threats of tariffs and visa sanctions.
MONETARY POLICY
Trump ended his first term in the White House with Treasury declarations of Vietnam as currency manipulator.
The country is currently on the U.S. watchlist for possible manipulations. In recent months, the central bank has allowed the Vietnamese dong to weaken against the dollar and the country’s bold growth targets may signal the intention to tolerate an even weaker currency, said Adam Samdin at Oxford Economics.
The exchange rate has, however, remained within the allowed flexibility and the central bank has said it would monitor and adjust to Trump’s policies.
GOLF DIPLOMACY
The Trump Organization has agreed to develop a $1.5 billion golf course in Vietnam, its local partner said in October.
(Reporting by Francesco Guarascio; Editing by Lincoln Feast.)
