By Ella Cao, Mei Mei Chu and Naveen Thukral
BEIJING/SINGAPORE (Reuters) – China is poised to receive record soybean imports in the second quarter, traders and analyst said, after delayed Brazilian shipments and slow customs clearances have caused supply tightness that forced several processors to halt operations.
The world’s largest soybean buyer is forecast to import a record high of 31.3 million metric tons of the oilseed in the April to June period, alleviating supply pressure from smaller arrivals expected during March, according to the average of forecasts from five research and trading firms.
That is a roughly 4.6% rise from 29.91 million tons imported during the second quarter of last year, as freshly harvested beans from Brazil’s bumper crop flow into China.
“South America soybean prices, particularly Brazilian new crop soybean, are more attractive than their counterpart, as such Chinese crushers have purchased rather large volumes of Brazilian new crop soybeans,” said Cheang Kang Wei, assistant vice president at StoneX in Singapore.
China’s recent supply squeeze stems from buyers avoiding U.S. beans amid concerns over a trade war with Washington, along with delays in Brazil’s harvest, the world’s biggest soybean producer.
Beijing retaliated last week against new U.S. tariffs by increasing duties on $21 billion worth of agricultural products, including soybeans.
“The soybean shortage during this period has been more widespread and severe, prompting a growing number of soybean mills across the country to halt operations,” said Liu Jinlu, agricultural researcher at Guoyuan Futures.
MARCH IMPORTS TO DROP
March imports are expected to shrink to a five-year low of 5.27 million tons, according to StoneX.
Chinese firms imported a record 105 million tons of soybeans in 2024, but high crush rates to meet livestock feed demand and stockpiling ahead of U.S. President Donald Trump’s January inauguration reduced inventories.
According to data from consultancy Mysteel, soybean inventory at Chinese ports shrank to 4 million tons by March 7, a decrease of 600,700 tons from the previous week and down from 892,500 tons from the same period last year.
“Soymeal stocks are pretty tight, which is reflected in prices but we expect the situation to ease from April,” said one oilseed trader in Singapore. “Prices of soybean products will come under pressure.”
The March soybean crush is forecast at 5.84 million tons, a 10.1% decline from February and a 19.1% from a year earlier, StoneX’s Cheang said.
Tight supplies have driven crush margins in processing hub of Rizhao to more than 450 yuan ($62.19) per ton.
A slower pace of customs clearance at Chinese ports added to the supply squeeze.
China has in recent years increased the rate of quality inspections on imported soybean cargoes, lengthening clearing times and delaying discharge amid rising imports of the oilseed. Some shipments from the port to crushing plants can take between 20 and 25 days, up from 15 days typically, said a China-based trader.
($1 = 7.2356 Chinese yuan renminbi)
(Reporting by Ella Cao and Mei Mei Chu in Beijing, Naveen Thukral in Singapore; Editing by Christian Schmollinger)
