A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Rae Wee
With the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting out of the way, the central bank spotlight now turns to some of its European counterparts – the Bank of England, the Swiss National Bank and the Riksbank – with rate decisions due later today.
The BoE, at centre stage, is widely expected to keep rates on hold as it monitors the economic impact of U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff onslaught and the British government’s imminent tax hike for employers.
With UK inflation stuck stubbornly above its 2% target, the BoE has cut borrowing costs by less than the European Central Bank and the Fed since last summer, contributing to the country’s sluggish growth rate.
Ahead of that, investors will get UK wage data to chew on. Expectations are for pay growth across the whole economy, excluding bonuses, to have held steady at an annual 5.9% rate in the three months to January.
The Riksbank is similarly expected to stand pat on rates on Thursday, while economists see the SNB cutting its main policy rate by a quarter percentage point and holding it there until at least 2026.
Trump weighed in on Fed policy on Wednesday, saying the central bank would be better off cutting rates “as U.S. tariffs start to transition (ease!) their way into the economy”, just hours after it left rates unchanged.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the Trump administration’s initial policies, including extensive import tariffs, appear to have tilted the U.S. economy towards slower growth and at least temporarily higher inflation, even as policymakers still projected two rate cuts this year.
Despite the risks to the U.S. economic outlook, investors chose to latch on to the prospect of further Fed easing ahead, sending stocks in Asia higher on Thursday.
Europe, meanwhile, looked set for a mixed open, with EUROSTOXX 50 futures up 0.07% but FTSE futures down 0.14%.
Geopolitics also remained prominent on investors’ radar.
Israel’s military said it intercepted a missile launched from Yemen early on Thursday as hostilities with the Houthis intensified. Trump has threatened to punish Iran over its perceived support for the Yemeni militant group.
The escalation of tensions in the Middle East sent oil prices higher on Thursday, with Brent crude futures up 0.55% and U.S. crude futures gaining 0.46%.
But capping those gains was the prospect of a return of Russian supply to the market, after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said a halt to energy strikes in the war with Russia could be established quickly.
Trump and Zelenskiy agreed on Wednesday to work together to end Russia’s war with Ukraine, in what the White House described as a “fantastic” one-hour phone call.
Key developments that could influence markets on Thursday:
– Bank of England, Swiss National Bank, Riksbank policy decisions
– UK wage data (January)
(By Rae Wee; Editing by Edmund Klamann)
