By Daren Butler
DIYARBAKIR, Turkey (Reuters) – Turkey’s crackdown on President Tayyip Erdogan’s main rival and silence on what reforms might follow the end of a 40-year conflict with Kurdish militants are stoking distrust among Kurds anxious to see what a fragile peace process may bring.
At stake is a potential boost to NATO member Turkey’s political and economic stability that may encourage moves to ease tensions elsewhere in the Middle East. Failure could fuel economic and social woes in the country’s less developed southeast and add to a death toll already exceeding 40,000.
Jailed leader Abdullah Ocalan’s call last month for his militant Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) to disband following an approach by an Erdogan ally was a gift to the government, after unsuccessful past attempts to end the conflict. The pro-Kurdish DEM Party, parliament’s third largest, is now demanding that democratisation steps follow.
The PKK heeded the call, declaring an immediate ceasefire. The group added it wanted Ocalan himself to manage the disarmament and political and democratic conditions must be established for peace to succeed.
Interviews with two dozen Kurds and politicians show doubts outweighing peace hopes in Turkey’s mainly Kurdish southeast amid a crackdown on opposition parties and the surprise arrest and detention of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu. His jailing pending trial on corruption charges has sparked Turkey’s biggest protests in more than a decade.
“We are entering a minefield. It could go off the rails and end in failure. That’s possible,” said DEM lawmaker Cengiz Candar, closely involved in the Kurdish issue since the early 1990s, when the first in a series of peace efforts failed.
DEM has held three meetings with Ocalan at his Imrali island prison, south of Istanbul, where he has been held since his capture in 1999. But they say Ankara is keeping them in the dark about any reform roadmap.
Turkey’s presidency did not respond to a request for a comment on the issues raised here and officials from Erdogan’s AK Party say it is for the president to speak on the peace process. But he has not shed much light.
“The democratic space for politics will naturally expand further after disarmament,” Erdogan said after Ocalan’s peace call.
STEP TOWARDS PEACE?
One sign of common thinking did emerge as Kurds celebrated the March 21 Newroz spring festival. Erdogan suggested making it a national holiday, echoing a bill sent to parliament a day earlier by DEM MP Gulcan Kacmaz Sayyigit.
She told Reuters it was a coincidence that both made the call but that it could help cement peace.
Turkey banned Newroz gatherings in the 1990s, resulting in Kurds clashing with security forces. Clashes peaked during the so-called “Bloody Newroz” in 1992 when dozens were killed, mostly in Sirnak province. Distrust of the state remains widespread there.
At Sirnak’s Newroz celebrations last week, Kurds danced and sang folk songs. A DEM lawmaker there, Mehmet Zeki Irmez, said his party was gathering local opinions on Kurdish political and language rights.
“The state should take steps, but unfortunately we cannot feel this locally,” Irmez said, amid tight police security and with Turkish military bases perched on hills around the town.
In the last decade, Turkey has ousted dozens of elected pro-Kurdish party mayors, jailed their leaders and detained thousands over alleged PKK ties, which they deny.
Meanwhile from their base in northern Iraq’s Qandil mountain region, the PKK, who are designated a terrorist group by Turkey and its Western allies, also voiced distrust of Ankara.
“Since Ocalan announced his initiative for peace, Turkey has not stopped its attacks or reduced its military operations,” a PKK representative said. “Turkish warplanes continue to fly over our heads”.
“Turkey must make concessions if it is serious about moving forward in the peace process, and so far we have not seen that.”
When asked about the issue of military operations, a Turkish defence ministry official said, “as long as there is an armed terrorist, our operations will continue.” He said 14 militants had been killed in Iraq and Syria in the last week.
“BLOOD AND TEARS”
As imam of Nebi Mosque in Diyarbakir, southeast Turkey’s largest city, Omer Iler experienced the conflict at first hand in 2016 when security forces fought militants nearby in its historic centre, half of which was devastated as a result.
“Blood and tears came in floods,” Iler said of the violence. He praised Erdogan for correcting injustices against Kurds, who make up some 20% of Turkey’s 86 million population. He cited repression of Kurdish language and even denial of their existence as an ethnic group before Erdogan came to power.
But Iler, appointed by Erdogan to head the AKP in Diyarbakir in January, said he had no knowledge of reforms that might follow the PKK’s disbandment.
Outside the mosque where Iler preached for 14 years, bustling with market traders and shoe-shiners, few had confidence in the peace process.
“The state has deceived us many times. Many times the PKK has declared ceasefires, but for nothing,” said 63-year-old retiree Bahadir, who gave only his first name due to the sensitivity of the issue. “Ocalan must be released to speak to the PKK.”
The PKK itself has demanded to speak to its founder, but it remains unclear if Ankara will grant access.
The last bid to end the PKK insurgency collapsed in 2015, coinciding with the Kurdish YPG militia – viewed by Turkey as a PKK extension – consolidating its influence in Syria.
That experience engendered greater government caution, given the continued power of the YPG, which is influenced by Ocalan but denies that his disarmament call applies to them.
EYES ON NEW CONSTITUTION
Erdogan is seeking consensus on a new constitution that would enable him to stand in 2028 elections and Kurdish support would make that easier. But he must tread carefully as steps seen as concessions in the PKK process may alienate many Turks.
Former Prime Minister Binali Yildirim, no longer active in government, suggested last month the definition of citizenship as being “a Turk” could be modified, so other ethnic groups do not feel neglected.
AKP party spokesperson Omer Celik dismissed the idea of such a constitutional amendment, but Justice Minister Yilmaz Tunc said on Thursday that Turkey needed a new constitution that embraces “all segments of society”.
Nevertheless, Candar saw some glimmers of hope, noting Erdogan had chatted with a DEM lawmaker in the Ocalan delegation during a parliamentary dinner this month and had said he was open to meeting the delegation in early April.
Erdogan’s nationalist ally Devlet Bahceli, who launched the peace bid in October, seeks a rapid resolution of the process, proposing that the PKK hold a congress to disband in eastern Turkey in early May.
Candar noted that Bahceli referred to Ocalan recently as the PKK’s “founding leader”, in contrast to his past denunciations of him as “terrorist chief” and “baby killer”.
“From this we understand that this is going somewhere despite all these negative images, the arrests, bans and appointments of trustees (in place of mayors).”
(Reporting by Daren Butler and Baghdad newsroom; Editing by Alexandra Hudson)
