By Sherin Elizabeth Varghese and Noel John
(Reuters) – Oil prices are set to remain under pressure in 2025 as U.S. tariffs and slowing economic growth in India and China weigh on demand, while OPEC+ pushes forward with plans to increase output, a Reuters poll showed.
A survey of 49 economists and analysts in March forecasts Brent crude will average $72.94 per barrel in 2025, down from February’s estimate of $74.63. U.S. crude is expected to average $69.16 per barrel, slightly lower than last month’s $70.66 outlook.
With global crude balances expected to widen by 300,000 barrels per day (bpd) this year, the market is teetering on the edge of surplus, said Florian Grunberger, senior analyst at Kpler.
“This shift is driven by a weaker macroeconomic outlook in China and underperformance in Indian demand, which more than offset a modest improvement in European demand.”
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) this month forecast global oil demand to rise by 1.45 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025 and 1.43 million bpd in 2026. However, analysts caution that U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff plans could derail this trajectory, as they could trigger economic slowdowns and drive up global inflation.
Since returning to office in January, Trump has reinstated a “maximum pressure” campaign on Iran to cut its oil exports to zero, and announced a 25% tariff on any country buying oil or gas from Venezuela. Meanwhile, ongoing peace talks between Russia and Ukraine could culminate in the lifting of U.S. sanctions on Russia at some point, analysts say.
“More U.S. sanctions against producers like Iran and Venezuela could lead to a smaller world oil supply and higher prices,” but a comeback of Russian oil to the markets could weigh on prices, said Frank Schallenberger, head of commodity research at LBBW.
Analysts widely expect OPEC+, which includes OPEC members plus Russia and other allies, to remain flexible with production increases. The group will likely stick to its plan to boost oil production for a second consecutive month in May, four sources told Reuters.
“We do not think that OPEC+ will increase supply materially this year but will instead attempt to push oil prices higher by letting demand outstrip supply during the last three quarters of the year,” said John Paisie, president of Stratas Advisors.
(Reporting by Sherin Elizabeth Varghese and Noel John in Bengaluru; Editing by Kavya Balaraman and David Evans)
