(Reuters) -Major brokerages including Goldman Sachs and J.P.Morgan see more rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve following President Donald Trump’s latest tariffs.
Last week, Trump imposed a 10% baseline tariff on all imports to the U.S. and higher duties on dozens of other countries, sparking fears of a global economic slowdown.
Following J.P.Morgan, Goldman Sachs raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 45% from 35% for this year amid a growing number of such predictions by investment banks fueled by the mounting tensions over tariff trade war.
Currently, traders on average expect rate cuts totaling 100 basis points for the year, according to data compiled by LSEG.
Here are the forecasts from major brokerages after latest tariffs:
Brokerage Total cuts in No. of cuts in 2025 Fed Funds Rate
2025
Citigroup 125 5
bps (starting in May) 3.00-3.25% (end of
2025)
125 5 (25
J.P.Morgan bps bps starting in 2.75%-3.00% (in
June) January 2026)
UBS _
Global Wealth 75-100bps
Management
Goldman 75 3 (25
Sachs bps bps each starting in 3.50-3.75%(through
June) December)
HSBC 75 3 (25
bps bps each in June, 3.50-3.75% (end of
September and 2025)
December)
Wells 75 3 (25
Fargo bps bps each in June, 3.50-3.75% (end of
September and 2025)
December)
Wells 75 3
Fargo Investment bps 3.50%-3.75% (end of
Institute 2025)
Barclays 50 2 (25
bps bps each in June and 3.75-4.00% (end of
September) 2025)
ING 50 2 (H2
bps 2025) 3.75-4.00% (end of
2025)
Nomura 25 1 (in
bps December) 4.00-4.25% (end of
2025)
Morgan No 0
Stanley rate cut 4.25-4.50% (end of
2025)
Deutsche No 0
Bank rate cut 4.25-4.50% (end of
2025)
Berenberg No 0
rate cut 4.25-4.50% (end of
2025)
BofA No 0
Global Research rate cut 4.25-4.50% (end of
2025)
RBC – 3
Capital Markets
** Wells Fargo Investment Institute is a wholly owned subsidiary of Wells Fargo Bank
(Compiled by the Broker Research team in Bengaluru; Editing by Anil D’Silva, Mrigank Dhaniwala, Tasim Zahid and Krishna Chandra Eluri)
