BUDAPEST (Reuters) – After Donald Trump’s inauguration in January, Hungarian leader Viktor Orban predicted the “Trump tornado” would usher in a golden era for Europe’s far right.
It isn’t working out that way.
In Hungary, the strong economy that helped Orban win previous elections is now struggling and could worsen as Europe confronts Trump’s aggressive trade policy. Hungary’s political opposition appears stronger than at any point in Orban’s 15-year rule. And Orban’s close association with Trump no longer offers clear advantages as U.S. tariffs threaten Hungary’s economy.
Nearly 100 days into Trump’s fracturing of the trans-Atlantic order, Orban shares a dilemma with other right-wing leaders and politicians in Europe: They must now calculate whether unflinching support for Trump will damage their domestic popularity at a time of growing economic pain.
Ahead of a general election early next year in Hungary, the Tisza party, led by a former ally, now has a four-point lead over Orban’s long-ruling Fidesz, according to Budapest-based pollster Median. Other pollsters give the opposition an even bigger edge. Institutes close to the government say Fidesz is still ahead.
“This is really the first time since 2010 that there is a significant chance of an opposition party winning the election,” said Bulcsu Hunyadi, a specialist in right-wing populism at Political Capital, a Budapest think tank.
Government spokesman Zoltan Kovacs and chief aide Balazs Orban (no relation) declined to comment for this story. The prime minister has said that Hungary’s “fantastic” relations with the U.S. would bring prosperity to Hungarians.
Reuters interviews with a dozen people from think tanks, civil society, politics and diplomacy in Hungary and the U.S. suggest that Orban and his “illiberal democracy” – as he describes it – face unprecedented challenges.
While Orban still has time to prevail in an election that remains a year away, signs of trouble for his government are a setback to American conservatives who have lionized Hungary as a right-wing paradise.
The withdrawal of U.S. security guarantees in Ukraine have forced Europe to rearm and consolidate in the face of threats from both Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, and the prospect of a trans-Atlantic trade war shows signs of strengthening European unity.
That has left Orban looking increasingly isolated as the most loyal Trump ally in the 27-member European Union and the EU leader with the closest ties to Putin.
Most polls indicate that support for Europe’s far right has remained stable since Trump’s return to the White House, according to research by Tabea Schaumann and Javier Carbonell of the European Policy Centre, a Brussels-based think tank.
They argue that any boost Trump’s reelection has given to far-right leaders such as Orban has been cancelled out by the U.S. president’s expressions of hostility to Europe.
The far right cast themselves as patriots. Their opponents have used this stance against them, arguing that loyalty to an anti-European U.S. president makes them “lackeys of a foreign power,” said Carbonell.
U.S. tariffs have also put Europe’s far-right politicians in a bind.
Santiago Abascal, the leader of Spain’s Vox party, who attended Trump’s inauguration, has strong support among farmers likely to be hit hard by tariffs on exports. Abascal hasn’t criticized Trump directly, instead offering to go to Washington to mediate for Spaniards and blaming the centre-left government and the EU for their predicament.
The leaders of the far-right Alternative for Germany party, which won almost 21% of the vote in February elections, have been vocal supporters of Trump. Co-leader Tino Chrupalla has shown sympathy for tariffs, telling Bild newspaper: “Trump wants to protect his economy. Isn’t that understandable?”
But Alice Weidel, the more prominent co-leader, warned in a later social media post of the harm tariffs would do to Europe’s largest economy. “We must seek solutions with the U.S.,” she said.
In Britain, populist Reform UK Party leader Nigel Farage, who describes Trump as a friend, said he disagreed with the U.S. approach on tariffs. He said on his radio show that Trump “did too much, too soon” and compared his approach to Liz Truss, Britain’s shortest-serving prime minister, whose plan for sweeping tax cuts triggered market turmoil in 2022 before she was forced to retreat.
AFTER TRUMP WIN, RIDING HIGH
That contrasts to right-wing euphoria in Europe after Trump’s inauguration.
“Yesterday we were heretics,” Orban told a summit of fellow hard-right European leaders in Madrid on February 8. “Today we’re mainstream.”
In Hungary, Orban hailed his close ties with the White House. Having a call with Trump was so normal that it had “no real news value,” he told journalists on March 4, when asked about a recent conversation with the U.S. president.
Orban also broke with most European leaders by publicly praising the Trump administration’s dismantling of the United States Agency for International Development, the main delivery mechanism for American foreign assistance.
USAID, a U.S. tool for winning influence abroad, had been an important source of funds for Hungary’s independent media. It was also a source of frustration for Orban, who had privately complained about USAID to the Biden administration, said a former U.S. official.
Expecting no blowback from a friendly Trump administration, Orban took aim at his political opponents.
In March, his ruling party pushed through legislation allowing a ban on an annual Pride march by Hungary’s LGBTQ+ community, sparking speculation that the new law could also curtail political rallies or protests.
That was followed by constitutional changes passed in parliament on April 14 that allow Orban to suspend citizenship of Hungarian nationals who are also citizens of a country outside the EU and are deemed a threat to Hungary’s sovereignty.
Government spokesman Kovacs said in a social media post that the change aimed to counter “foreign-funded political pressure networks that undermine Hungarian democracy and sovereignty.”
Trump’s return to the White House also solved another stubborn issue. In a gesture to Orban on April 15, the U.S. State Department removed sanctions related to alleged corruption on a close Orban aide, Antal Rogan, saying the punitive measures imposed under former President Joe Biden were “inconsistent with U.S. foreign policy interests.” Orban’s government has denied allegations of corruption.
Some analysts said they doubt that Orban’s friendship with Trump will help him evade punishing U.S. tariffs on the EU. Trump has said the economic bloc was formed “to screw the United States.” Tariffs could cripple the auto industry upon which Hungary’s economy heavily depends, with major investment from Germany, China and South Korea.
Orban says Hungary is negotiating an economic agreement with the U.S. that will offset any tariffs on the EU, but has provided no details.
An EU spokesperson declined to comment.
The Hungarian central bank has said Trump’s tariffs could lop 0.5 to 0.6 percentage points off economic growth. Some policymakers fear they could worsen inflation. So far, Orban’s government has been careful to avoid publicly criticizing Trump.
Under Biden, Orban often blamed Hungary’s problems on “this woke, leftist, Democratic administration” in the U.S., said David Pressman, who was then U.S. ambassador to Hungary.
“Well, the administration has changed and all of those problems continue to plague Hungary,” he said, “and that poses a real political issue for Viktor Orban.”
Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto has repeatedly blamed EU officials for provoking U.S. tariffs through what he has called their “failure to negotiate.”
The political opposition has a different message: Hungary needs to be closer to Europe. And as tariffs threaten the economy, the idea is gaining traction.
“HUNGARY FIRST”
In his speeches, Hungarian opposition leader Peter Magyar rails against what he calls “Orban inflation” for causing a cost-of-living crisis. Inflation peaked above 25% in early 2023, then rebounded in February to the EU’s highest levels at an annual rate of 5.6%, forcing Orban to impose food price controls in mid-March.
Magyar vows to sweep away the “politicians, oligarchs and criminals” holding Hungary back and crack down on corruption.
In a parking lot in western Hungary at a recent rally, Magyar leapt onto the back of a flatbed truck to address a small crowd. “I want to represent all Hungarians,” he shouted. It is one of hundreds of speeches Magyar has given in small towns and cities across Hungary, with a direct appeal to voters that bypasses the hold Orban has over the country’s media and advertising.
Afterwards, Magyar posed for selfies with supporters, before being escorted away by his security detail.
Speaking to Reuters, Magyar described the U.S. as “one of our strongest and most important allies.” But Hungary “should stand together with the European Union” and negotiate with the U.S. as part of the bloc.
“Hungary first. And of course Europe second,” he said.
(Additional reporting by Aislinn Laing in Madrid, Thomas Escritt in Berlin, Andrew MacAskill in London and Humeyra Pamuk in Washington. Editing by Jason Szep)
