By Antonella Cinelli
ROME (Reuters) -Italian industrial output fell 0.7% in May from the month before, data showed on Thursday, reversing a surprise rise in April and pointing to further weakness for the country’s struggling manufacturing sector.
A Reuters survey of 14 analysts had pointed to a flat reading after a 0.9% rise the month before, revised from an originally reported 1.0% increase.
On a work day-adjusted year-on-year basis, industrial output in the euro zone’s third largest economy was down by 0.9% in May, national statistics agency ISTAT said, versus a forecast for a 0.2% rise.
In April, output had increased by 0.1% from the year before, the first rise in more than two years.
May’s month-on-month fall extended to all industrial sectors with the exception of energy, ISTAT said.
It added, however, that a stabilisation of industrial activity appears to be in progress, as signalled by a 0.6% increase in the three months to May from the December-February period.
Think-tank Prometeia said the second quarter may post a marginal rise in industrial output from the previous three months, which would be a second straight quarterly increase and signal a “timid change of course” compared with the recent past.
Yet the outlook remains highly uncertain, with a survey of manufacturing sector purchasing managers last week showing contraction for a 15th consecutive month in June and at a steeper rate than in May, reversing recent tentative signs of recovery.
“Industry looks set to remain a minor growth driver, if a driver at all, placing the burden on services to sustain momentum”, said Paolo Pizzoli, senior economist at ING.
ISTAT last month forecast Italy’s economy would grow by 0.6% this year amid mounting uncertainty over the impact of U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade tariff policy, trimming a previous forecast of 0.8% made in December.
Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s government in April halved its economic growth estimate for 2025 to 0.6%, broadly in line with the expectations of most analysts.
(Reporting by Antonella Cinelli, graphic by Stefano Bernabei, editing by Gavin Jones)
