STOCKHOLM (Reuters) -Sweden’s central bank will keep its policy rate unchanged at 2.0% on August 20 with analysts almost evenly divided over whether the Riksbank has done easing in this cycle or whether there is one more cut to come this year, a poll by Reuters showed on Monday.
None of the analysts in the poll saw a change in the policy rate this week as the Riksbank balances a stuttering economy with headline inflation running well above the central bank’s 2% goal.
Ten of 19 analysts expected no change this year or through at least the first half of 2026.
“Economic … growth remains weak,” Nomura said in a note. “However, above-target inflation should prevent further policy rate cuts.”
Sweden’s economy has stalled, expanding a meagre 0.1% in the second quarter after a small contraction in the first three months of the year.
Cutting the key rate in mid-June, the Riksbank said it might be possible to ease policy further this year to boost growth.
However, inflation has proven stubborn with headline consumer prices running too hot. In July, inflation was 3.0%.
Central banks are trying to work out whether current price pressures will be temporary, giving them room to help struggling households and businesses, or more long-lasting.
In Sweden, rate-cut enthusiasts argue that seasonal and technical factors will mean inflation will fall back after the summer, while growth will continue to disappoint amid geopolitical uncertainty.
Nine analysts saw a cut in September this year.
“Our base case remains one last cut in September,” Bank of America said in a note. “The big picture remains a very clear inflation undershoot next year.”
The Riksbank will publish its rate decision on August 20, but will not update its forecasts – including its forecast for the rate path ahead.
(Reporting by Simon Johnson; Editing by Sharon Singleton)
