By Iain Withers and Wayne Cole
LONDON/SYDNEY (Reuters) – Global stocks were on track for a weekly gain on Friday as expectations for rapid-fire U.S. rate cuts promised to lower borrowing costs globally, a relief to stressed bond markets and a drag on the dollar.
European shares dipped 0.2% in opening trade, while Nasdaq and S&P 500 futures were off 0.1-0.2%, having hit new peaks overnight. The MSCI All Country World Index nonetheless remained on track for a 1.7% weekly gain.
Gold, meanwhile, was on track for a fourth weekly gain in a row and traded near record levels, in a sign that investor concerns about global economic uncertainties persist. [GOL/]
Stock markets across Asia had earlier made strong gains, while Chinese stocks hit a 3-1/2 year high, spurred by extravagant expectations for AI-related earnings growth.
The U.S. consumer price report had been the last major hurdle to the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates next week, and while it showed an increase in prices, markets remained focused on weak job numbers in the previous week.
“Even if we have some weaker numbers on the job market, the markets are really focusing on the Fed impact that will give a new boost to growth in the future,” said Amelie Derambure, senior multi-asset portfolio manager at Amundi.
Veronica Clark, an economist at Citi, said the bank continued to expect 125 basis points of Fed rate cuts over the next five meetings.
Futures markets show a 93% chance of a quarter-point cut to 4.00%-4.25% next week, and a 7% chance of a half-point cut.
The yield on benchmark 10-year Treasury notes rose 3 bps to 4.043%, having fallen below 4% for the first time since April on Thursday.
ECB ‘IN A GOOD PLACE’
In currency markets, the dollar index – which measures the greenback against six peers – edged 0.2% higher to 97.757.
The dollar gained 0.5% versus the yen to 147.89, after Japanese and U.S. finance ministers on Friday released a statement reaffirming that neither country would target currency levels in their policies.
The euro shed 0.1% to $1.171725, having received a modest fillip on Thursday when the European Central Bank kept rates unchanged and signalled that it was in a “good place” on policy.
“This suggests the Governing Council is not inclined to ease in the absence of a large growth shock,” said Greg Fuzesi, an economist at JPMorgan. “We have thus moved back our call for a final rate cut from October to December.”
After the meeting, ECB sources told Reuters the December meeting would be the most realistic time frame to debate whether another cut was needed to buffer the economy. Markets imply only a one-in-six chance of a December easing.
Britain’s economy recorded zero monthly growth in July, in line with forecasts but showing a sharp drop in factory output, weighing on sterling which was down 0.3% at $1.3536.
In commodity markets, gold firmed 0.3% to $3,644 an ounce, just off the record top of 3,673.95 hit early in the week.
Oil prices were subdued after the International Energy Agency predicted an even larger record oil surplus next year as OPEC continues to pump more product. [O/R]
Brent <LCOc1> was broadly flat at $66.38 a barrel, while U.S. crude eased 0.1% to $62.31 per barrel.
(Reporting by Iain Withers in London and Wayne Cole in Sydney; Editing by Shri Navaratnam, Kim Coghill and Gareth Jones)
