By Ashley Tang and Rajendra Jadhav
KUALA LUMPUR (Reuters) -Malaysia’s palm oil stocks fell for a fifth month in February to their lowest in 22 months as production declined, outweighing a reduction in exports, data from the industry regulator showed on Monday.
The drop in stocks in the world’s second-largest palm oil producer after Indonesia could support benchmark futures, traders said, even as the tropical oil’s premium over soyoil reduces demand from price-sensitive importing countries.
Malaysia’s palm oil stocks at the end of February fell 4.31% from the previous month to 1.51 million metric tons, the lowest level since April 2023, according to the Malaysian Palm Oil Board, or MPOB.
Crude palm oil production in February fell 4.16% to 1.19 million tons, the lowest level in three years, after floods disrupted production. Palm oil exports fell 16.27% to hit 4-year low of 1 million tons, it said.
A Reuters survey had forecast inventories at 1.48 million tons, with output seen at 1.16 million tons and exports at 1.05 million tons. [PALM/POLL]
While stocks were slightly higher than market expectations, the ongoing supply tightness caused by lower output is likely to support prices, said Anilkumar Bagani, research head of Mumbai-based vegetable oil broker Sunvin Group.
In March, Malaysian production is likely to improve, but exports are unlikely to improve significantly as palm oil still holds a premium over soyoil, said a Mumbai-based dealer with a global trade house.
“Indian demand will be crucial in the coming weeks to support prices. Early indications suggest India is buying more to replenish stock,” the trader said.
Stagnating production and a biodiesel push in top producer Indonesia could buoy prices of cooking oil for years, factors that make traditionally cheap palm oil costlier and eliminate an advantage that also curbed prices of rival oils.
Following is a breakdown of the Malaysian Palm Oil Board figures and Reuters estimates for February (volumes in tons)[PALM/POLL]:
February February 2025 January February
2025 poll 2025 2024
Output 1,188,029 1,155,000 1,239,545* 1,259,38
3
Stocks 1,512,100 1,484,061 1,580,252* 1,920,11
3
Exports 1,002,135 1,050,000 1,196,849* 1,024,52
6
Imports 66,784 70,000 88,474 32,556
*indicates revised figures by the Malaysian Palm Oil Board
(Reporting by Ashley Tang and Rajendra Jadhav; Editing by Martin Petty and Lincoln Feast.)
