By Jamie McGeever
ORLANDO, Florida (Reuters) – TRADING DAY
Late push lifts Nasdaq to first gain in 5 weeks
Many of the world’s major central banks sent a strong message this week that the uncertainty caused by U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade wars is weighing on growth, stoking inflation, and dramatically reducing visibility on the interest rate outlook.
It’s a highly unpredictable and nervy environment for investors to navigate, as reflected by the lack of clear direction across world markets this week.
The MSCI World equity index snapped a four-week losing streak for a rise of 0.7%, the S&P 500 rose 0.5%, the Nasdaq eked out a gain of 0.17% – just avoiding its worst run since the 2022 bear market – while European stocks gained more than 1% for their best week in five weeks.
U.S. high yield credit spreads tightened from the previous week’s six-month wides but gold rose, while Treasury yields edged lower yet the dollar crept higher.
Those hoping for more clarity on the political, policy or data fronts next week may be disappointed – trading could be every bit as messy and lacking in direction, especially with the end of the quarter approaching.
It’s not just quarter end looming either – attention is also turning to April 2, when President Trump is expected to announce more tariffs, including reciprocal levies on many countries.
As policymakers made clear this week, the uncertainty is weighing on businesses and consumers, and potentially putting a freeze on investment, hiring and spending. Investors may decide to put their plans on ice too.
One of the strongest investment trends this year has been the reallocation of capital out of Wall Street to markets overseas. U.S. stocks have underperformed the rest of the world by around 13 percentage points.
Europe has been a particular beneficiary of these flows due to Germany’s historic fiscal policy shift that may substantially boost German – and euro zone – growth. But how much juice is left in that transatlantic swing and the reversal of the ‘U.S. exceptionalism’ trade, at least in the near term?
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde warned that the immediate outlook is gloomy thanks to the trade fog. And stateside, Fed officials Austan Goolsbee and John Williams on Friday drove home the stagflation warnings that the U.S. central bank made earlier in the week.
Next week promises to be just as nervy. And foggy.
I’d love to hear from you, so please reach out to me with comments at . You can also follow me at @ReutersJamie and @reutersjamie.bsky.social.
[Latest Market Data segment]
This Week’s Key Market Moves
* Gold rises 1%. Remarkably, this is gold’s 11th weeklygain out of the last 12, accumulating total gains of 16%. * The Nasdaq rises 0.5% on Friday to yield a very slendergain on the week, its first in five weeks. That averted itsworst run since April-May 2022 when the index was deep in bearmarket territory. * Europe’s Stoxx 600 index rises 1.2% , its biggest rise in five weeks. A final push nextweek, and the index is well positioned to notch its best quartersince 2020. * European defense stocks slip 0.5% though, their first lossin six weeks and only second in 13. They’re still up 20% sinceBerlin’s fiscal U-turn, but has the rally peaked? * UK 10-year gilt yields rise for a third week, and onFriday the bonds underperform French and German debt by thewidest margin this year. Poor public finance figures are anotherheadache for finance minister Rachel Reeves ahead of next week’sbudget update. * Turkey’s markets plunge as concerns over the detentionof President Tayyip Erdogan’s main political rival persist.Stocks have their worst week since October 2008, the lira slumps4%.
Charts of the Week
Not one, but two charts of the week this week.
The first highlights the scale of Wall Street’s underperformance this year, and how quickly the ‘U.S. exceptionalism’ narrative has faded. Big Tech, which powered the rally in recent years, is lagging even more.
The second shows what a quarter it has been for gold bugs. The yellow metal is up 15%, its best quarter since 2016. If it can stretch that out to over 16% by March 31, it will be its best quarter since 1986.
What could move markets on Monday?
* China BYD earnings (Q4) * Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data from Japan, Germany,euro zone, UK, United States (March)
Here are some of the best things I read this week:
1. The Impact of Tariffs on Inflation – Boston Fed paper 2. American Pharmaceutical Companies Still Aren’t PayingTax in the U.S. – Brad Setser 3. Rescuing America’s Economy from Trump – Brad DeLong 4. Dollar stops insulating US stocks: Mike Dolan 5. EU struggles to bring Trump to the table on tariffs
Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
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(Writing by Jamie McGeever)
