By Rae Wee and Alun John
SINGAPORE/LONDON (Reuters) -Shares struggled for direction on Wednesday and oil prices slid as investors awaited a raft of important economic data that could underscore this week’s corporate warnings about the impact of U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs.
The U.S. is due to report advance first quarter GDP data at 1330 GMT (0830 ET), which is expected to show the economy stalled or even contracted in the first quarter, swamped by a deluge of imported goods by businesses eager to avoid higher costs.
Data on Tuesday showed the U.S. goods trade deficit surged to an all-time high in March, prompting economists to sharply downgrade their GDP estimates.
BNP Paribas on Wednesday revised down its forecast to a 0.6% contraction from a previous 0.4% increase saying the “late-breaking data warrant a shift,” though they did not see the data as a “gamechanger” for Federal Reserve policy.
PCE inflation, the Fed’s preferred gauge of price pressures, is due Wednesday as well. The figure will be closely watched as it will give an indication of how much scope the Fed has to cut rates.
There was also a batch of earnings for investors to digest on Wednesday, and European car companies were the latest to strike a downbeat tone.
Both Mercedes and Stellantis suspended their profit guidance due to the uncertain impact of the tariffs, echoing a move by General Motors the previous day. Swiss bank UBS also warned of an uncertain outlook.
But investors were still struggling to get a grip on what it all meant, and the broad European share benchmark was actually 0.5% higher partly because some of the gloom is already priced, and as the mood music continues to point to a softening of trade tensions. [.EU]
Trump signed a pair of orders to soften the blow of his auto tariffs on Tuesday, and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said he had reached one deal with a foreign power, though he declined to name them.
Data showing the euro zone economy grew faster than expected in the first quarter also helped at the margin.
In contrast with European shares, U.S. S&P and Nasdaq futures were both slightly lower. [.N]
It will be a long day on Wall Street with “Magnificent Seven” members Meta Platforms and Microsoft’s results due after markets close
OIL SLIPS
The market reaction was clearer in oil. Brent crude futures were down 1% to $63.3 a barrel, having tumbled 2.4% overnight. U.S. crude lost 0.7% to $59.96 per barrel. [O/R]
The key benchmarks are also set for their largest monthly drop in almost three and a half years with Brent having lost 14% and WTI 15.5%.
In the mix on Wednesday was tariff fallout in China, where data showed factory activity contracted at the fastest pace in 16 months in April.
“The hit from sky-high U.S. tariffs meant the new export orders index dropped back to its lowest level, COVID-19 disruptions aside, since August 2012,” said Zichun Huang, a China economist at Capital Economics.
“The sharp drop in the PMIs likely overstates the impact of tariffs due to negative sentiment effects, but it still suggests that China’s economy is coming under pressure as external demand cools.”
The dismal figures hobbled a rise in Chinese shares, with the CSI300 blue-chip index reversing earlier gains to last trade 0.1% lower, but Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index ticked up 0.5%. [.SS]
The economic fears caused U.S. Treasuries to continue to rally, and the 10 year U.S. yield was at its lowest in three weeks at 4.16% if only down one basis point on the day.
The two-year Treasury yield also hit a three-week trough of 3.6400%. [US/]
Moves were fairly muted in the foreign exchange market, though early April volatility meant the monthly returns were still dramatic. The dollar is on track for its worst monthly performance since November 2022 with a 4.7% loss against a basket of peers. [FRX/]
On the other hand, the yen – a beneficiary of safe-haven demand – was set for a monthly gain of more than 5%, the most since July 2024. Similarly, the euro was headed for its largest monthly gain in more than two years and last bought $1.1375.
Elsewhere, spot gold fell 0.9% to $3,286 an ounce. [GOL/]
(Reporting by Rae Wee; Editing by Kate Mayberry and Ros Russell)
