By Greg Torode
HONG KONG (Reuters) -As China stages its largest-ever military parade through Beijing next week, it will be highlighting not just advancements in arms hardware, but also the vital technology required to protect, control and command the weapons it would use in any future conflict.
Among the more eye-catching aircraft, hypersonic missiles and undersea drones, will be equipment such as battlefield sensors on tanks, advanced early warning and targeting radars and air defence lasers – all part of an effort that some analysts describe as transparency designed to intimidate and deter potential rivals.
But beyond the unprecedented scale and choreographed display of military might, question marks remain about how effectively China’s armed forces – untested since a bloody border conflict with Vietnam in 1979 – could knit it all together in a future conflict.
Singapore-based security scholar Drew Thompson said while the People’s Liberation Army may unveil advanced weapons and systems to protect and command them, China’s key potential adversaries may not be deterred by the “bling” of a parade.
“It is performative but it doesn’t speak to capability, and we still don’t know how effectively China could tie it all together and operate in a conflict scenario,” said Thompson, a senior fellow at Singapore’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS).
The parade comes amid protracted military tensions across East Asia as China increases deployments around Taiwan and the disputed South China Sea and the U.S. and its allies prepare potentially to respond to a regional conflict.
China claims Taiwan as its territory and has never renounced the use of force to seize it. Taiwan’s President Lai Ching-te and his government strongly object to China’s sovereignty claims, saying it is up to the island’s people to decide their future.
While the military leaderships of the U.S. and its allies like Japan as well as Taiwan may not be deterred, others might be intimidated, Thompson said.
To that end, China might be signalling to India, Russia and smaller regional nations as well as “American libertarian isolationists”.
“As you’re watching the parade, it is easy to get distracted….it is not about the bling, but the effect the bling has on the view of the observer – that is China is too big to fight and U.S. interests aren’t worth the risk or the consequences of a fight with China.”
The Chinese defence ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
VICTORY DAY PARADE
Regional military attaches and security analysts have already been scrutinising on-line footage of the rehearsals of what Beijing has called a “Victory Day” parade, marking the end of World War Two after Japan’s formal surrender.
The war is also often described by Chinese officials and in state media as the “War of Resistance Against Japanese Aggression” and the “World Anti-Fascist War”.
“(The weapons and equipment) will fully demonstrate our military’s robust ability to adapt to technological advancements, evolving warfare patterns, and win future wars,” parade deputy director Wu Zeke told a press conference last week.
If Beijing is to win those wars, it will have to fully integrate a network of military satellites and cyber and electronic warfare capabilities, now considered second only to the United States, and use them to effectively dominate its near seas.
To that end, an early warning plane capable of operating from China’s aircraft carriers, the KJ-600, has been displayed – a vital piece in finishing the complex jigsaw of carrier operations.
China’s jet fighters will also be closely watched, particularly following Pakistan’s use of Chinese-built J-10C fighters against Indian aircraft during clashes in May.
Pakistan has claimed that it shot down six Indian aircraft during the clashes, including a French-made Rafale fighter. India has acknowledged some losses but denied losing six aircraft and, earlier this month, said it had shot down six Pakistani planes.
A suite of new YJ-17, YJ-19 and YJ-20 cruise missiles will also be shown. They could be deployed from bombers and ships, some with hypersonic warheads – potentially complicating operations by U.S. and allied ships across East Asia.
And a new medium-sized tank, the ZTZ-201, has appeared in rehearsals bristling with what analysts believe are advanced sensors and battle management systems.
An entirely new weapon on show is also vexing analysts with its sudden appearance – a torpedo-shaped sea drone too large to be fired from ordinary submarines.
Ben Lewis, founder of open source data platform PLATracker, said its emergence suggested China had been closely tracking the U.S.’s own underwater drone programme.
While it is unclear how close it is to operational, “if they can produce a lot of these kinds of weapons cheaply, things could get very ugly, very fast in a Taiwan scenario,” Lewis said.
Collin Koh, a senior fellow at the RSIS’ Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies in Singapore, said while the sea drone effort had been underway for some time, he was surprised that it had reached the point where the PLA was ready to show it off.
“(It) seems to be imply that the system is either already in service or soon to do so,” he said.
(Reporting By Greg Torode in Hong Kong; additional reporting by Laurie Chen in Beijing; Editing by Raju Gopalakrishnan)
