By Jihoon Lee
SEOUL (Reuters) -South Korea’s export growth likely slowed in August, weighed by higher U.S. tariffs introduced after a trade deal with the Trump administration, a Reuters poll showed on Wednesday.
Exports from Asia’s fourth-largest economy are forecast to have risen 3.0% from a year earlier, after gaining 5.8% in July, according to a median estimate from a survey of nine economists.
That would be the third consecutive month of year-on-year increases fuelled by strong demand for semiconductors but the weakest percentage gain in the streak.
South Korea is the first major exporting economy to report trade figures each month, and investors generally look to the data for global demand trends.
In late July Seoul reached a trade deal with President Donald Trump, which set U.S. tariffs on imports from the Asian ally at 15%, lower than the previous threat of 25% but higher than the baseline 10% that had been in place.
The tariffs came into effect on August 7.
“Full-month data will be lower than the earlier 20-day data on a daily average basis due to frontloading before ‘reciprocal’ tariffs came into force on August 7,” Meritz Securities economist Stephen Lee said, referring to Trump’s country-specific tariffs.
In the first 20 days of this month, exports rose 7.6%, as semiconductors jumped 29.5%. U.S.-bound shipments, however, fell 2.7%.
“It is positive that the trade deal reduced external uncertainty at least to some degree, but exports to the U.S. will continue to fall on tariffs,” said Chun Kyu-yeon, an economist at Hana Securities.
“The weakening trend is expected to continue amid a broader slowdown in global demand triggered by U.S. tariffs,” Chun said.
Imports were projected to have fallen 0.1% in August, after rising 0.7% in July.
The median estimate for the monthly trade balance stood at a surplus of $5.42 billion, narrower than the previous month’s $6.61 billion.
The August trade data is scheduled for release on Monday, September 1, at 9 a.m. (0000 GMT).
(Reporting by Jihoon Lee, Polling by Devayani Sathyan and Vijayalakshmi Srinivasn in Bengaluru; Editing by Shri Navaratnam)
