JAKARTA (Reuters) -Indonesia’s trade balance is likely to post a $3.2 billion surplus in July, supported by a decline in imports that could help offset slowing exports, a Reuters poll showed on Friday.
However, the expected July surplus is narrower than June’s $4.11 billion, which had been boosted by a surge in exports ahead of U.S. tariff implementation in August.
The median forecast of 10 economists, surveyed by Reuters between August 22 and August 29, estimated a 5.2% year-on-year rise in exports for July, compared with an 11.3% increase in June.
Imports were seen in contraction at 5%, which would be the first since January 2025, versus a 4.28% growth in June.
On Monday, the statistics bureau will also announce Indonesia’s consumer price index data for August.
The annual headline inflation in August is expected to accelerate to 2.48% from 2.37% in July, according to the poll, while month-to-month inflation is projected at 0.08% in August, down from 0.3% in July.
The central bank targets inflation within a range of 1.5 to 3.5% in 2025.
Annual core inflation, which strips out government-controlled and volatile food prices, was expected at 2.3% in August, compared with 2.32% in July.
(Polling by Pranoy Krishna and Susobhan Sarkar; Writing by Stefanno Sulaiman; Editing by Sherry Jacob-Phillips)
